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Lp(a) and recurrent ASCVD in 273,770 US patients: risk rises continuously to a hazard ratio of 1.45 above 300 nmol/L (MacDougall et al., EHJ 2025)

Original title: Lipoprotein(a) and recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular events: the US Family Heart Database

Eur Heart J · · 7

MacDougall DE, Tybjærg-Hansen A, Knowles JW, Stern TP, Hartsuff BK, McGowan MP, Baum SJ, Wilemon KA, Nordestgaard BG

In US claims data on 273,770 people with diagnosed ASCVD and an Lp(a) result in nmol/L (43 percent women), recurrent events over 5.4 years rose from a hazard ratio of 1.04 at 15 to 79 nmol/L to 1.15 at 80 to 179, 1.29 at 180 to 299 and 1.45 at 300 nmol/L or more, consistently across sex and race, with high-impact LDL-C lowering (notably PCSK9 inhibitors) partly mitigating the risk at 180 nmol/L and above. The largest secondary-prevention dataset to date, and support for aggressive LDL-C lowering while waiting for specific therapy.

Read the paper (DOI)PubMed

Original abstract

Background And Aims: Higher levels of lipoprotein(a) drive increasing risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in otherwise healthy individuals regardless of sex and race/ethnicity. This study aimed to evaluate whether this is also true for recurrent ASCVD, and whether LDL cholesterol-lowering therapy possibly mitigates such a relationship.

Methods: In US medical claims between 2012 and 2022 for 340 million individuals, 273 770 had diagnosed ASCVD and lipoprotein(a) measured in nmol/L. These women (n = 117 269; 43%) and men (n = 156 501; 57%) included Black (n = 22 451; 8%), Hispanic (n = 24 606; 9%), and White (n = 161 165; 59%) individuals.

Results: Lipoprotein(a) levels were higher in women vs men and in Black vs Hispanic and White individuals. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 41 687 individuals (15%) experienced recurrent ASCVD. Higher lipoprotein(a) levels were associated with continuously increasing risk of recurrent ASCVD. Compared to individuals with lipoprotein(a) < 15 nmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratios for recurrent ASCVD events were 1.04 (95% confidence interval 1.01-1.07) for 15-79 nmol/L, 1.15 (1.12-1.19) for 80-179 nmol/L, 1.29 (1.25-1.33) for 180-299 nmol/L, and 1.45 (1.39-1.51) for ≥300 nmol/L. Results were similar for individual ASCVD components, and in sex, race/ethnicity, baseline ASCVD, and diabetes subgroups; however, high impact LDL cholesterol-lowering therapy possibly mitigates the deleterious effect of lipoprotein(a) ≥ 180 nmol/L, most pronounced in those on PCSK9 inhibitors. Interaction on recurrent ASCVD events between lipoprotein(a) categories and sex, race/ethnicity, baseline ASCVD, diabetes, and impact of LDL cholesterol-lowering therapy use had P-values of .61, .06, .33, .91, and 2 × 10-8, respectively.

Conclusions: In 273 770 individuals with ASCVD, higher lipoprotein(a) levels were associated with continuously increasing risk of recurrent ASCVD events regardless of sex and race/ethnicity that may have been partially mitigated by high impact LDL cholesterol-lowering therapy.

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Summary written by lp-a.org from the published abstract; figures as published. Page updated 17 August 2026. Methods.